THIRD INTERNATIONAL MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE STUDY 

TIMSS U.S. Student Achievement Item Pilot Study Nears Completion

The piloting of the test booklets for Populations 1 and 2 is in the final stages of completion. All data from the United States has been compiled at the U.S. National Research Center in East Lansing and sent to the IEA Data Processing Center in Hamburg, Germany.

The piloting task involved the administration of achievement instruments to students in grades three, four, seven and eight. Each instrument contained mathematics or science items appropriate to the grade level and was designed to take no more than 55 minutes of student time. The instrument used at the third and fourth grade levels contained a short background questionnaire, 27 or 28 multiple choice items and seven extended response items. There were 12 versions of the student achievement instrument to be piloted at the third and fourth grade level and 20 versions of the instrument for the seventh and eighth grade population. In all, 52 countries piloted the instruments.

The pilot study in the United States involved 27 schools and some 3,000 elementary and middle school students from California and Michigan. A concerted effort was made to identify school systems in rural, suburban, and urban settings. We are particularly grateful to all the students, teachers and administrators who graciously donated their time to this important phase of TIMSS. We are aware that the timing of this pilot was during a very busy part of the school year. As such, the contributions of the participating schools is even more appreciated. We would like to give these schools additional pubic acknowledgment, but for reasons of student confidentiality, we are unable to do so here.

The next phase of the TIMSS pilot will involve the school questionnaires and teacher questionnaires. Approximately 100 school principals and 100 teachers
 
 

across the nation will be asked to participate in this portion of the study. The school questionnaire will focus on course offerings and associated roles and functions. The teacher questionnaire is intended to provide the study with information concerning teacher backgrounds, including their knowledge and use of curricular materials. This phase of the pilot is expected to take place in the fall of 1993.

Submitted by Robert Martin, Michigan State University.

Survey of Mathematics and Science Opportunity (SMSO) Activity Report

Bill Schmidt is project director of the SMSO project, a research and development grant from the National Science Foundation in conjunction with the National Center for Education Statistics related to the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS).

Six countries have participated in the development of a conceptual model of educational opportunity and in the development and piloting of related questionnaires and procedures in preparation for TIMSS. During the past year and a half observations have made in multiple classrooms in France, Japan, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States. These observations and the research using early versions of the teacher questionnaires provided the basis for much discussion at the three international meetings of the project held during 1992. During these meetings the data obtained through the observations and the classroom research engendered discussion and insight into salient issues of classroom instruction and into practical issues around the questionnaires such as who may respond to it and how much time may be available for such a response. All of this activity has served to inform questionnaire development for TIMSS.

In the most recent research, five SMSO countries are in the final process of gathering data relevant to students' Opportunity to Learn (OTL). In this phase, over 85 teachers in France, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States were asked to keep logs for a period of 10 to 12 weeks concerning the topics they covered in their classroom instruction. Teachers were then asked to respond to a questionnaire that was designed to capture the same kind of information as that recorded in their logs. Finally, students of participating teachers were given an achievement test designed to assess their knowledge of topics which had been identified by their teachers as covered or not covered in classroom instruction. These data will provide valuable insights into the assessment of Opportunity to Learn and into the relationship of OTL and achievement.

A report on what has been learned thus far in these SMSO activities was presented at a symposium at the annual AERA meeting in Atlanta in April. William Schmidt, SMSO Project Director, and Gilbert Valverde, Research Associate, made the presentation during a symposium entitled "Measuring Learning Opportunities and Instructional Practices in Mathematics and Science in Large-Scale Surveys: Examining the State of the Art." The symposium was organized by Leigh Burstein, UCLA and a member of the U.S. National Steering Committee and was moderated by Senta Raizen Director of the National Center for Improving Science Education in Washington, D.C. Plans for further data analyses and publications of reports are under discussion and will be finalized at the upcoming SMSO international meeting to be held this fall. A copy of the report made at the AERA symposium may be obtained from the TIMSS U.S. National Research Center at Michigan State University.

Submitted by Leland Cogan, Michigan State University.

TIMSS Projected Project Dates:

1993: Completion of instrument development; 1994: Full field trials; 1994-1995: Main data collection - Phase I; 1998: Main data collection - Phase II.

Proposals Reviewed for Contractor to Collect U.S. TIMSS Data

The National Center for Education Statistics released an official request for proposals from contractors who desire to bid on the data collection for the U.S. portion of TIMSS. The announcement of the publication of the request for proposals was published in the Congressional Business Daily on May 17. Deadline for proposal submission was August 9. A committee of federal government officials is currently reviewing the various bids which were submitted, and a decision is expected by September 30, 1993.

When awarded, the contract will cover the following primary TIMSS data collection activities:

- Field test data collection in spring 1994

- Main study data collection in spring 1995

- State efforts to undertake TIMSS to produce

state-level data

- Statistical linkage between TIMSS and the

National Assessment of Educational Progress

- Case Studies of educational policy issues in

five TIMSS nations

- Classroom observational studies of

mathematics instruction in five TIMSS nations

The contractor to be selected is expected to have had extensive experience in conducting large-scale student assessment surveys, performing cooperative data collection activities with states, and carrying out observational and qualitative research in foreign countries. After October 1993, the contractor will perform all U.S. data collection related to the TIMSS project.

The activities of the contractor will be overseen by Lois Peak, TIMSS Project Officer at the National Center for Education Statistics.

Submitted by Lois Peak, NCES.
 

National Center Staffing News

We welcome to the U.S. Center in East Lansing, Robert Martin, who has worked in the College of Education at Michigan State University for several years in an administrative capacity. He holds an Education Specialist degree from Michigan State University in School Psychology and is ABD in College and University Administration.

With the addition of Bob to our staff, we have been able to accomplish some restructuring which will assist us in our work on TIMSS. We continue to have staff involved in many aspects of the project, but the following assignments serve as primary responsibilities: Bob Martin is Research Associate and Director of Piloting Activities for the U.S. National Research Center.; Lee Cogan is Research Associate and Director of data collection for the Survey of Mathematics and Science Opportunity (SMSO); and Gilbert Valverde is Assistant Director, Senior Research Associate and Director of data collection for the U.S. Curriculum Analysis. If you have any questions about these activities, please contact one of these individuals.

In addition during summer semester, the following persons on graduate assistantships worked on the U.S. Curriculum Analysis project: Nancy Alexander, Gregory Coverdale, Sunethra Karunaratne, Rajesh Lai.

Joining us 1/4 time fall semester on the analysis of the international curriculum analysis data is Richard Houang, Systems Analyst at the Computer Center at Michigan State University. Dr. Houang also teaches advanced level graduate statistics courses in the Department of Educational Psychology. Also joining the U.S. Center through subcontracting arrangements to help in the international curriculum data analysis are Richard Wolfe (OISE, Toronto) and David Wiley (formerly Dean of the College of Education at Northwestern University). They join Curtis McKnight, Senta Raizen and Ted Britton who are already associated with the project. Richard Wolfe is also assisting Richard Houang with the design of the data base. Four new graduate assistants are also assigned to this project: Suwanna Eamsukkawat, Jo See-Heyon, Wimol Taoklam, and Robab Mohamadi Ziazi.
 

RESEARCH NOTES 

U.S. School Population Facts

By age six, 99.78 percent of all children in the United States have begun their formal schooling. High school graduation rates have increased steadily over the history of public instruction in the United States. In 1870 only 2 percent of the population of seventeen year olds had graduated from high school. Figures for 1950 were 59 percent of this population graduating from high school. The percentage of high school graduates in the seventeen year old population peaked at 76.9 percent in 1970 declining to 71.4 percent in 1980 and 74.1 percent in 1989.

Total public elementary and secondary school enrollment declined during the 1970s and 1980s. These declines in the school age population followed periods of high enrollment during the 1950s and 1960s which were associated with a period of very high birthrates in the United States following the Second World War.

Increased enrollments are expected in primary schools until the mid-1990s. The population of five to thirteen year olds is expected to peak at approximately 33,854,000 in 1995, declining slightly toward the end of the century. Enrollments in secondary schools are expected to rise steadily into the twenty first century.

In 1989 there were 1,607,000 elementary school teachers and 1,130,000 secondary school teachers in the United States. Since 1971 the pupil/teacher ratio in both public and private schools in the United States has declined. In 1990 the pupil/teacher ratios in public elementary and secondary schools were 18.6:1 and 14.9:1 respectively. In private schools these ratios were 15.0:1 in elementary and 11.4:1 in secondary schools.

It is forecast that demand for new hiring of teachers will increase over 35 percent by the mid-1990s. Most of this increased demand will be at the secondary school level. Complications in meeting this demand are anticipated.

This information was excerpted from "United States of America: System of Education," prepared by Gilbert Valverde for the Second Edition of the International Encyclopedia of Education, and is included in the United States National Research Center-TIMSS Series Report No. 5.

Corrections

Senta Raizen, is the senior science consultant to the project. Raizen is Director (not Co-Director) of The National Center for Improving Science Education in Washington, D.C. Edward Britton, Research Coordinator for The National Center for Improving Science Education holds an Ed.D. from University of Florida (not Florida State) and serves as a science consultant to the project. We apologize for any confusion or misunderstandings caused by these errors.

We want to hear from our readers, so if you have questions, want additional information about a topic addressed in the newsletters or the study in general, please feel free to contact us. You can write or call Gilbert Valverde, Assistant Director - TIMSS, 115 Erickson Hall, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824-1034, telephone 517-353-7755, fax 517-336-1727, or E-Mail, 21547gav@msu.edu. 

If you have suggestions of articles you would like to see in future newsletters or if you or someone you know did not receive this newsletter directly, but would like to be on our mailing list, please send your name and address along with your request to Jacqueline Babcock, same address as above or E-Mail: jbabcock@msu.edu. 

We also are available to make presentations to professional groups or associations who might be interested in being introduced to TIMSS or receiving updates on the project. If your organization is interested in hearing more about TIMSS and would like a representative from our office to present to your group, please let us know. 

National Research Coordinating Committee 

Dr. Jeanne Griffith, Associate Commissioner for Data Development, National Center for Education Statistics; Dr. Eugene Owen, National Center for Education Statistics; Dr. Lois Peak, National Center for Education Statistics; Dr. Larry Suter, Office of Studies and Program Assessment, National Science Foundation. The committee is chaired by Dr. William Schmidt, Michigan State University. 

This newsletter is published by the TIMSS U.S.. National Research Center located at Michigan State University. The newsletter is edited by Jacqueline E. Babcock. 

U.S. National Steering Committee 

Dr. Gordon Ambach, Executive Director, Council of Chief State School Officers; Dr. Deborah Ball, Associate Professor, Michigan State University; Dr. Leigh Burstein, Professor, Graduate School of Education, University of California-Los Angeles; Dr. Audrey Champagne, University at Albany-SUNY; Dr. Jewel Plummer Cobb, California State, Los Angeles; Dr. David Cohen, Professor, The University of Michigan; Dr. John Dossey, Distinguished Professor of Mathematics, Illinois State University, currently on assignment at United States Military Academy, Westpoint, New York; Dr. Emerson Elliott, National Center Education Statistics; Dr. Sheldon Glashow, Higgings Professor of Physics and Mellon Professor of the Sciences, Harvard University; Dr. George E. Hall, President, Slater Hall Information Products; Dr. Larry Hedges, Professor, Department of Education, University of Chicago; Professor Henry Heikkinen, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Northern Colorado; Dr. Jeremy Kilpatrick, Regents Professor of Mathematics Education, University of Georgia; Dr. Mary Lindquist, Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Mathematics Education, Columbus College, and President of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics; Dr. Marcia C. Linn, Professor and co-director of the Center for Research on Evaluation, Standards, and Student Testing, University of California-Berkeley; Dr. Robert L. Linn, Professor of Education, University of Colorado; Dr. Paul Sally, Professor of Mathematics, University of Chicago; Dr. Richard Shavelson, Graduate School of Education and Professor, Department of Education, University of California-Santa Barbara; Dr. Bruce Spencer, Professor, Department of Statistics and School of Education and Social Policy, Northwestern University; Dr. Elizabeth Stage, Executive Director, California Science Project, University of California-Berkeley; Dr. Harold Stevenson, Professor of Psychology, The University of Michigan; Dr. James Taylor, Yankelovich, Clancy, Shulman, Westport, CT; Dr. Kenneth Travers, Office of Studies, Evaluation and Dissemination, National Science Foundation; and Dr. Paul H. Williams, Professor, Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin. The committee is chaired by Dr. William Schmidt, Professor, Michigan State University and National Project Coordinator of the U.S. National Research Center-TIMSS.